Addressing Drug Demand Uncertainty in a Pandemic Outbreak

Authors

  • Irwan Syahrir
  • Iwan Vanany

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37506/ijfmt.v15i3.15801

Keywords:

SEIR model, forecasting, healthcare, epidemic outbreaks, drugs, hospital

Abstract

This investigation is based on the application of Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model
to simulate the number of diseases spread in a region, along with a historical approach of epidemic outbreak
cases. Dengue fever pandemic outbreak is used to apply the proposed model for drug demand uncertainty in
a pandemic. The aim of this research is to predict the number of drugs needed in a hospital for the treatment
of dengue fever cases during the epidemic outbreak. The SEIR model is used to simulate the number of
dengue fever patients in a hospital atGresik district, East Java in Indonesia. This analysis was carried out
in a comparative way with the other forecasting methods. The result showed that the simulation’s result is
different from other forecasting methods, depending on the context in which it is used, such as the disease
type and the area of epidemic under study. In the future research, the proposed model is could applied in
Malaria, COVID-19 pandemic, and another in order to ensuring the applicability of proposed model.

Author Biographies

Irwan Syahrir


Doctoral Student, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Technology, Institut
Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia; Department of Industrial, Faculty of Technology,
Muhammadiyah University of Surabaya, Surabaya 60113, Indonesia

Iwan Vanany

Professor, Department of Industrial and
Systems Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Technology, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya 60111,
Indonesia

Published

2021-05-17

How to Cite

Irwan Syahrir, & Iwan Vanany. (2021). Addressing Drug Demand Uncertainty in a Pandemic Outbreak. Indian Journal of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology, 15(3), 3225-3235. https://doi.org/10.37506/ijfmt.v15i3.15801