Effectiveness of Gail Model in Assessing the Risk of Developing Breast Cancer in Baghdad, Iraq

Abstract

Background: The Gail Model is a statistical breast cancer risk assessment algorithm that was developed
in 1989 by Dr. Mitchell Gail and colleagues with the Biostatistics Branch of the National Cancer Institute’s
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics. The Gail Model looked at a woman’s personal medical
history, familial history, and reproductive history. The Gail model has been widely used and validated with
conflicting results.
Method: A Gail model were assessed for 200 convenient patients, 100 patients with history of breast cancer
diagnosed during the last year (case) and other 100 patients with benign breast disease (control) and who
attended the oncology hospital in medical city and Imamin Al-kadhimin medical city during 2019. The
relative risk was measure for each patients and calculated 5 year risk >1.7% was regard as high risk, chisquare
and student T test was used to find association between two groups.
Results: Calculated 5 year risk >1.7% found in 21% of case and in 11% of control and no association was
found between two groups in the relative risk of breast cancer (?2 = 3.7, df = 1, p = 0.054).
Conclusions: The Gail model is not useful in identifying risk of breast cancer in women and should not be
used for that purpose.